Proof verification: Strong Law of Large Numbers Under Fourth Moment Control
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I'm trying to solve the following exercise.
Show that if $(X_n)_{n =1}^infty$ is a sequence of independent real-valued random variables with mean zero and uniformly bounded fourth moment, $n^{-1}sum_{j=1}^n X_j to 0$ almost surely. (Hint: Think about a fourth moment tail bound.)
Here's what I did.
Without loss, by rescaling $X_i$, we may assume that $mathbf{E} X_i^4 leq 1$. Note that this means $mathbf{E} X_i^2 = |X_i|_2^2 leq |X_i|_4^2 = (mathbf{E} X_i^4)^{1/2} leq 1$. Put $S_n = sum_{j=1}^n X_j$, observe that $mathbf{E}S_n^4 leq n + (n^2 - n) = n^2$, simply because the other cross terms vanish due to independence.
Following the hint, notice that by Markov's inequality,
$$
mathbf{P}(|n^{-1}S_n|geq n^{-1/8}) = mathbf{P}(S_n^4 geq n^{3.5}) leq n^{-3.5} mathbf{E}S_n^4 leq n^{-1.5}.
$$
The upshot of this is that with $A_n = {|n^{-1}S_n| geq n^{-1/8}}$, $mathbf{P}(A_n)$ is summable, and hence $mathbf{P}(A_n~mathrm{i.o.}) = 0$ by Borel-Cantelli Lemma 1.
If $omega$ is such that $|n^{-1}S_n(omega)| geq n^{-1/8}$ for finitely many terms, then $limsup_n |n^{-1}S_n(omega)| = 0$, and hence $n^{-1}S_n(omega) to 0$. But the set of such $omega$ is almost sure (indeed, the complement of $A_n~mathrm{i.o.}$), proving the claim.
probability-theory measure-theory proof-verification
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add a comment |
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I'm trying to solve the following exercise.
Show that if $(X_n)_{n =1}^infty$ is a sequence of independent real-valued random variables with mean zero and uniformly bounded fourth moment, $n^{-1}sum_{j=1}^n X_j to 0$ almost surely. (Hint: Think about a fourth moment tail bound.)
Here's what I did.
Without loss, by rescaling $X_i$, we may assume that $mathbf{E} X_i^4 leq 1$. Note that this means $mathbf{E} X_i^2 = |X_i|_2^2 leq |X_i|_4^2 = (mathbf{E} X_i^4)^{1/2} leq 1$. Put $S_n = sum_{j=1}^n X_j$, observe that $mathbf{E}S_n^4 leq n + (n^2 - n) = n^2$, simply because the other cross terms vanish due to independence.
Following the hint, notice that by Markov's inequality,
$$
mathbf{P}(|n^{-1}S_n|geq n^{-1/8}) = mathbf{P}(S_n^4 geq n^{3.5}) leq n^{-3.5} mathbf{E}S_n^4 leq n^{-1.5}.
$$
The upshot of this is that with $A_n = {|n^{-1}S_n| geq n^{-1/8}}$, $mathbf{P}(A_n)$ is summable, and hence $mathbf{P}(A_n~mathrm{i.o.}) = 0$ by Borel-Cantelli Lemma 1.
If $omega$ is such that $|n^{-1}S_n(omega)| geq n^{-1/8}$ for finitely many terms, then $limsup_n |n^{-1}S_n(omega)| = 0$, and hence $n^{-1}S_n(omega) to 0$. But the set of such $omega$ is almost sure (indeed, the complement of $A_n~mathrm{i.o.}$), proving the claim.
probability-theory measure-theory proof-verification
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add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'm trying to solve the following exercise.
Show that if $(X_n)_{n =1}^infty$ is a sequence of independent real-valued random variables with mean zero and uniformly bounded fourth moment, $n^{-1}sum_{j=1}^n X_j to 0$ almost surely. (Hint: Think about a fourth moment tail bound.)
Here's what I did.
Without loss, by rescaling $X_i$, we may assume that $mathbf{E} X_i^4 leq 1$. Note that this means $mathbf{E} X_i^2 = |X_i|_2^2 leq |X_i|_4^2 = (mathbf{E} X_i^4)^{1/2} leq 1$. Put $S_n = sum_{j=1}^n X_j$, observe that $mathbf{E}S_n^4 leq n + (n^2 - n) = n^2$, simply because the other cross terms vanish due to independence.
Following the hint, notice that by Markov's inequality,
$$
mathbf{P}(|n^{-1}S_n|geq n^{-1/8}) = mathbf{P}(S_n^4 geq n^{3.5}) leq n^{-3.5} mathbf{E}S_n^4 leq n^{-1.5}.
$$
The upshot of this is that with $A_n = {|n^{-1}S_n| geq n^{-1/8}}$, $mathbf{P}(A_n)$ is summable, and hence $mathbf{P}(A_n~mathrm{i.o.}) = 0$ by Borel-Cantelli Lemma 1.
If $omega$ is such that $|n^{-1}S_n(omega)| geq n^{-1/8}$ for finitely many terms, then $limsup_n |n^{-1}S_n(omega)| = 0$, and hence $n^{-1}S_n(omega) to 0$. But the set of such $omega$ is almost sure (indeed, the complement of $A_n~mathrm{i.o.}$), proving the claim.
probability-theory measure-theory proof-verification
$endgroup$
I'm trying to solve the following exercise.
Show that if $(X_n)_{n =1}^infty$ is a sequence of independent real-valued random variables with mean zero and uniformly bounded fourth moment, $n^{-1}sum_{j=1}^n X_j to 0$ almost surely. (Hint: Think about a fourth moment tail bound.)
Here's what I did.
Without loss, by rescaling $X_i$, we may assume that $mathbf{E} X_i^4 leq 1$. Note that this means $mathbf{E} X_i^2 = |X_i|_2^2 leq |X_i|_4^2 = (mathbf{E} X_i^4)^{1/2} leq 1$. Put $S_n = sum_{j=1}^n X_j$, observe that $mathbf{E}S_n^4 leq n + (n^2 - n) = n^2$, simply because the other cross terms vanish due to independence.
Following the hint, notice that by Markov's inequality,
$$
mathbf{P}(|n^{-1}S_n|geq n^{-1/8}) = mathbf{P}(S_n^4 geq n^{3.5}) leq n^{-3.5} mathbf{E}S_n^4 leq n^{-1.5}.
$$
The upshot of this is that with $A_n = {|n^{-1}S_n| geq n^{-1/8}}$, $mathbf{P}(A_n)$ is summable, and hence $mathbf{P}(A_n~mathrm{i.o.}) = 0$ by Borel-Cantelli Lemma 1.
If $omega$ is such that $|n^{-1}S_n(omega)| geq n^{-1/8}$ for finitely many terms, then $limsup_n |n^{-1}S_n(omega)| = 0$, and hence $n^{-1}S_n(omega) to 0$. But the set of such $omega$ is almost sure (indeed, the complement of $A_n~mathrm{i.o.}$), proving the claim.
probability-theory measure-theory proof-verification
probability-theory measure-theory proof-verification
edited Dec 12 '18 at 0:47
Drew Brady
asked Dec 11 '18 at 23:25
Drew BradyDrew Brady
719315
719315
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This is almost correct, except for the crucial part: it is not necessarily true that the expected value of $S_n^4$ will not be greater than $n$. You fail to take into account the $sim n^2$ terms $mathbb{E}[X_i^2X_j^2]$.
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Ah, @Mindlack, good point. I think, however since $umapsto u^4$ is convex, we have that $(1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega))^4 leq 1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega)^4$, in which case we actually have that $mathbf{E} (S_n/n)^4 leq 1$.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:22
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Ah, but this bound is not strong enough to carry forth the argument.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:25
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@Drew Brady: Yes indeed. However, the terms mentioned in my answer are the only ones that matter, so the expected value is less than $n^2$.
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 0:26
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Thanks for the edits. Can you take a look at my revised argument. Tell me if you think the details look right now. I forgot that $L^p$ is monotone on probability spaces!
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– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:48
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The edited solution works now!
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 12:00
add a comment |
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$begingroup$
This is almost correct, except for the crucial part: it is not necessarily true that the expected value of $S_n^4$ will not be greater than $n$. You fail to take into account the $sim n^2$ terms $mathbb{E}[X_i^2X_j^2]$.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Ah, @Mindlack, good point. I think, however since $umapsto u^4$ is convex, we have that $(1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega))^4 leq 1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega)^4$, in which case we actually have that $mathbf{E} (S_n/n)^4 leq 1$.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:22
$begingroup$
Ah, but this bound is not strong enough to carry forth the argument.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:25
$begingroup$
@Drew Brady: Yes indeed. However, the terms mentioned in my answer are the only ones that matter, so the expected value is less than $n^2$.
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 0:26
$begingroup$
Thanks for the edits. Can you take a look at my revised argument. Tell me if you think the details look right now. I forgot that $L^p$ is monotone on probability spaces!
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:48
$begingroup$
The edited solution works now!
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 12:00
add a comment |
$begingroup$
This is almost correct, except for the crucial part: it is not necessarily true that the expected value of $S_n^4$ will not be greater than $n$. You fail to take into account the $sim n^2$ terms $mathbb{E}[X_i^2X_j^2]$.
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Ah, @Mindlack, good point. I think, however since $umapsto u^4$ is convex, we have that $(1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega))^4 leq 1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega)^4$, in which case we actually have that $mathbf{E} (S_n/n)^4 leq 1$.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:22
$begingroup$
Ah, but this bound is not strong enough to carry forth the argument.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:25
$begingroup$
@Drew Brady: Yes indeed. However, the terms mentioned in my answer are the only ones that matter, so the expected value is less than $n^2$.
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 0:26
$begingroup$
Thanks for the edits. Can you take a look at my revised argument. Tell me if you think the details look right now. I forgot that $L^p$ is monotone on probability spaces!
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:48
$begingroup$
The edited solution works now!
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 12:00
add a comment |
$begingroup$
This is almost correct, except for the crucial part: it is not necessarily true that the expected value of $S_n^4$ will not be greater than $n$. You fail to take into account the $sim n^2$ terms $mathbb{E}[X_i^2X_j^2]$.
$endgroup$
This is almost correct, except for the crucial part: it is not necessarily true that the expected value of $S_n^4$ will not be greater than $n$. You fail to take into account the $sim n^2$ terms $mathbb{E}[X_i^2X_j^2]$.
answered Dec 11 '18 at 23:48
MindlackMindlack
3,87018
3,87018
$begingroup$
Ah, @Mindlack, good point. I think, however since $umapsto u^4$ is convex, we have that $(1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega))^4 leq 1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega)^4$, in which case we actually have that $mathbf{E} (S_n/n)^4 leq 1$.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:22
$begingroup$
Ah, but this bound is not strong enough to carry forth the argument.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:25
$begingroup$
@Drew Brady: Yes indeed. However, the terms mentioned in my answer are the only ones that matter, so the expected value is less than $n^2$.
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 0:26
$begingroup$
Thanks for the edits. Can you take a look at my revised argument. Tell me if you think the details look right now. I forgot that $L^p$ is monotone on probability spaces!
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:48
$begingroup$
The edited solution works now!
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 12:00
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Ah, @Mindlack, good point. I think, however since $umapsto u^4$ is convex, we have that $(1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega))^4 leq 1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega)^4$, in which case we actually have that $mathbf{E} (S_n/n)^4 leq 1$.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:22
$begingroup$
Ah, but this bound is not strong enough to carry forth the argument.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:25
$begingroup$
@Drew Brady: Yes indeed. However, the terms mentioned in my answer are the only ones that matter, so the expected value is less than $n^2$.
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 0:26
$begingroup$
Thanks for the edits. Can you take a look at my revised argument. Tell me if you think the details look right now. I forgot that $L^p$ is monotone on probability spaces!
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:48
$begingroup$
The edited solution works now!
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 12:00
$begingroup$
Ah, @Mindlack, good point. I think, however since $umapsto u^4$ is convex, we have that $(1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega))^4 leq 1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega)^4$, in which case we actually have that $mathbf{E} (S_n/n)^4 leq 1$.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:22
$begingroup$
Ah, @Mindlack, good point. I think, however since $umapsto u^4$ is convex, we have that $(1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega))^4 leq 1/n sum_{j=1}^n X_j(omega)^4$, in which case we actually have that $mathbf{E} (S_n/n)^4 leq 1$.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:22
$begingroup$
Ah, but this bound is not strong enough to carry forth the argument.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:25
$begingroup$
Ah, but this bound is not strong enough to carry forth the argument.
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:25
$begingroup$
@Drew Brady: Yes indeed. However, the terms mentioned in my answer are the only ones that matter, so the expected value is less than $n^2$.
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 0:26
$begingroup$
@Drew Brady: Yes indeed. However, the terms mentioned in my answer are the only ones that matter, so the expected value is less than $n^2$.
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 0:26
$begingroup$
Thanks for the edits. Can you take a look at my revised argument. Tell me if you think the details look right now. I forgot that $L^p$ is monotone on probability spaces!
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:48
$begingroup$
Thanks for the edits. Can you take a look at my revised argument. Tell me if you think the details look right now. I forgot that $L^p$ is monotone on probability spaces!
$endgroup$
– Drew Brady
Dec 12 '18 at 0:48
$begingroup$
The edited solution works now!
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 12:00
$begingroup$
The edited solution works now!
$endgroup$
– Mindlack
Dec 12 '18 at 12:00
add a comment |
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