How to forecast a 6 random number between 0 and 3 based on historical (existing) data by excel? [on hold]
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In the I-Ching divination (an ancient Chinese Book of Change):
There is a traditional way by coin toss 6 times. 3 coins tossed together will get 4 different outcomes by counting the numbers of head.
In the divination rule define:
0 stands for no head, that is called old-yin(female)
1 stands for 1 head, that is young-yang (male). 1 is same as "1" in binary.
2 stands for 2 heads and that's young-yin(female). 2 is same as "0" in binary.
3 stands for 3 heads, that is old-yang(male)
The 0 and 3 will be changing further (i.e. active or dynamic)
0 will be changing to "1" in binary and 3 will be changing to "0" in binary after further changing (or evolution) process. The relative probability of 0-1-2-3 is 1-3-3-1. Interesting thing is the sum of 1+3+3+1=8 that are eight hexagram of I-Ching divination system.
So the outcome of 6 times toss will be a 6 random numbers between 0 and 3. One position has 4 different chance (0,1,2,3). The total outcomes calculated as 4*4*4*4*4*4, 4096.I put it listed in the table as example. Now I have a historical data of numbers tossed 4096 times (by excel rand) and try to see what happen to the next if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method.
I am interested in the dynamic changing process. For example, if we tossed 4096 times and in nature random speaking, it is impossible to get the 4096 permutation because there are repeat outcomes happen definitely. It must be more than 4096 times tossed or data of excel rand. I used the excel random function to simulate how many time of coin-toss can get a completed 4096 outcomes and it was about 30K more coin toss, 30K that was my best result has had before. The worst case I did had high up to 45K times coin toss to have 4096 permutation completed. The different results make me to think of if it's something to do with the existing outcomes. If it does, I hope to use Excel function to predict what is the next permutation. Human being has limit thoughts to guess the next but excel could be have a better nature evolution than I do. To me, it could be the simplest case of Markov-Chain or Monte Carlo Tree Searching that Alpha-Go's policy network. There must be a method can make a better guess or predict based on the existing outcomes. I hope to learn more of it from your opinion.Thanks beforehand.
microsoft-excel
asked Nov 16 at 1:44
Chocho Lee
13
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Chocho Lee is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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put on hold as unclear what you're asking by Scott, fixer1234, Máté Juhász, PeterH, Toto Nov 17 at 11:47
Please clarify your specific problem or add additional details to highlight exactly what you need. As it's currently written, it’s hard to tell exactly what you're asking. See the How to Ask page for help clarifying this question. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.
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up vote
-2
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In the I-Ching divination (an ancient Chinese Book of Change):
There is a traditional way by coin toss 6 times. 3 coins tossed together will get 4 different outcomes by counting the numbers of head.
In the divination rule define:
0 stands for no head, that is called old-yin(female)
1 stands for 1 head, that is young-yang (male). 1 is same as "1" in binary.
2 stands for 2 heads and that's young-yin(female). 2 is same as "0" in binary.
3 stands for 3 heads, that is old-yang(male)
The 0 and 3 will be changing further (i.e. active or dynamic)
0 will be changing to "1" in binary and 3 will be changing to "0" in binary after further changing (or evolution) process. The relative probability of 0-1-2-3 is 1-3-3-1. Interesting thing is the sum of 1+3+3+1=8 that are eight hexagram of I-Ching divination system.
So the outcome of 6 times toss will be a 6 random numbers between 0 and 3. One position has 4 different chance (0,1,2,3). The total outcomes calculated as 4*4*4*4*4*4, 4096.I put it listed in the table as example. Now I have a historical data of numbers tossed 4096 times (by excel rand) and try to see what happen to the next if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method.
I am interested in the dynamic changing process. For example, if we tossed 4096 times and in nature random speaking, it is impossible to get the 4096 permutation because there are repeat outcomes happen definitely. It must be more than 4096 times tossed or data of excel rand. I used the excel random function to simulate how many time of coin-toss can get a completed 4096 outcomes and it was about 30K more coin toss, 30K that was my best result has had before. The worst case I did had high up to 45K times coin toss to have 4096 permutation completed. The different results make me to think of if it's something to do with the existing outcomes. If it does, I hope to use Excel function to predict what is the next permutation. Human being has limit thoughts to guess the next but excel could be have a better nature evolution than I do. To me, it could be the simplest case of Markov-Chain or Monte Carlo Tree Searching that Alpha-Go's policy network. There must be a method can make a better guess or predict based on the existing outcomes. I hope to learn more of it from your opinion.Thanks beforehand.
microsoft-excel
asked Nov 16 at 1:44
Chocho Lee
13
New contributor
Chocho Lee is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
put on hold as unclear what you're asking by Scott, fixer1234, Máté Juhász, PeterH, Toto Nov 17 at 11:47
Please clarify your specific problem or add additional details to highlight exactly what you need. As it's currently written, it’s hard to tell exactly what you're asking. See the How to Ask page for help clarifying this question. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.
1
I'm afraid I don't understand your question. Can you explain what Now I have a historical data of numbers tossed 4096 times and try to see what happen to the next if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method. means.
– Blackwood
Nov 16 at 4:24
=randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)will generate a 6 digit string of numbers. If you want it as a number put it through a math operation like*1. problem is, it will recalculate every time something on your spreadsheet changes. It wont be permanent unless you copy and paste its value.
– Forward Ed
Nov 16 at 8:11
3
if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method.Considering gambler's fallacy, what's the point?
– Kamil Maciorowski
Nov 16 at 9:26
Can I use the excel trend or forecast function to estimate the next row of 4097th?
– Chocho Lee
Nov 16 at 13:55
4
Coin tosses are independant events, you cannot predict what they will be based on past tosses. Only predict the probability of any given toss: 0.5 for heads and 0.5 for tails -- from which you can derive the probability of any one combination for any number of tosses -- and that probability does not change whether this is your first toss or your 4097th.
– cybernetic.nomad
Nov 16 at 15:26
|
show 7 more comments
up vote
-2
down vote
favorite
up vote
-2
down vote
favorite
In the I-Ching divination (an ancient Chinese Book of Change):
There is a traditional way by coin toss 6 times. 3 coins tossed together will get 4 different outcomes by counting the numbers of head.
In the divination rule define:
0 stands for no head, that is called old-yin(female)
1 stands for 1 head, that is young-yang (male). 1 is same as "1" in binary.
2 stands for 2 heads and that's young-yin(female). 2 is same as "0" in binary.
3 stands for 3 heads, that is old-yang(male)
The 0 and 3 will be changing further (i.e. active or dynamic)
0 will be changing to "1" in binary and 3 will be changing to "0" in binary after further changing (or evolution) process. The relative probability of 0-1-2-3 is 1-3-3-1. Interesting thing is the sum of 1+3+3+1=8 that are eight hexagram of I-Ching divination system.
So the outcome of 6 times toss will be a 6 random numbers between 0 and 3. One position has 4 different chance (0,1,2,3). The total outcomes calculated as 4*4*4*4*4*4, 4096.I put it listed in the table as example. Now I have a historical data of numbers tossed 4096 times (by excel rand) and try to see what happen to the next if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method.
I am interested in the dynamic changing process. For example, if we tossed 4096 times and in nature random speaking, it is impossible to get the 4096 permutation because there are repeat outcomes happen definitely. It must be more than 4096 times tossed or data of excel rand. I used the excel random function to simulate how many time of coin-toss can get a completed 4096 outcomes and it was about 30K more coin toss, 30K that was my best result has had before. The worst case I did had high up to 45K times coin toss to have 4096 permutation completed. The different results make me to think of if it's something to do with the existing outcomes. If it does, I hope to use Excel function to predict what is the next permutation. Human being has limit thoughts to guess the next but excel could be have a better nature evolution than I do. To me, it could be the simplest case of Markov-Chain or Monte Carlo Tree Searching that Alpha-Go's policy network. There must be a method can make a better guess or predict based on the existing outcomes. I hope to learn more of it from your opinion.Thanks beforehand.
microsoft-excel
asked Nov 16 at 1:44
Chocho Lee
13
New contributor
Chocho Lee is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
In the I-Ching divination (an ancient Chinese Book of Change):
There is a traditional way by coin toss 6 times. 3 coins tossed together will get 4 different outcomes by counting the numbers of head.
In the divination rule define:
0 stands for no head, that is called old-yin(female)
1 stands for 1 head, that is young-yang (male). 1 is same as "1" in binary.
2 stands for 2 heads and that's young-yin(female). 2 is same as "0" in binary.
3 stands for 3 heads, that is old-yang(male)
The 0 and 3 will be changing further (i.e. active or dynamic)
0 will be changing to "1" in binary and 3 will be changing to "0" in binary after further changing (or evolution) process. The relative probability of 0-1-2-3 is 1-3-3-1. Interesting thing is the sum of 1+3+3+1=8 that are eight hexagram of I-Ching divination system.
So the outcome of 6 times toss will be a 6 random numbers between 0 and 3. One position has 4 different chance (0,1,2,3). The total outcomes calculated as 4*4*4*4*4*4, 4096.I put it listed in the table as example. Now I have a historical data of numbers tossed 4096 times (by excel rand) and try to see what happen to the next if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method.
I am interested in the dynamic changing process. For example, if we tossed 4096 times and in nature random speaking, it is impossible to get the 4096 permutation because there are repeat outcomes happen definitely. It must be more than 4096 times tossed or data of excel rand. I used the excel random function to simulate how many time of coin-toss can get a completed 4096 outcomes and it was about 30K more coin toss, 30K that was my best result has had before. The worst case I did had high up to 45K times coin toss to have 4096 permutation completed. The different results make me to think of if it's something to do with the existing outcomes. If it does, I hope to use Excel function to predict what is the next permutation. Human being has limit thoughts to guess the next but excel could be have a better nature evolution than I do. To me, it could be the simplest case of Markov-Chain or Monte Carlo Tree Searching that Alpha-Go's policy network. There must be a method can make a better guess or predict based on the existing outcomes. I hope to learn more of it from your opinion.Thanks beforehand.
microsoft-excel
microsoft-excel
asked Nov 16 at 1:44
Chocho Lee
13
New contributor
Chocho Lee is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
asked Nov 16 at 1:44
Chocho Lee
13
New contributor
Chocho Lee is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
edited 2 days ago
asked Nov 16 at 1:44
Chocho Lee
13
New contributor
Chocho Lee is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
asked Nov 16 at 1:44
Chocho Lee
13
asked Nov 16 at 1:44
Chocho Lee
13
13
New contributor
Chocho Lee is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
New contributor
Chocho Lee is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
Chocho Lee is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
put on hold as unclear what you're asking by Scott, fixer1234, Máté Juhász, PeterH, Toto Nov 17 at 11:47
Please clarify your specific problem or add additional details to highlight exactly what you need. As it's currently written, it’s hard to tell exactly what you're asking. See the How to Ask page for help clarifying this question. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.
put on hold as unclear what you're asking by Scott, fixer1234, Máté Juhász, PeterH, Toto Nov 17 at 11:47
Please clarify your specific problem or add additional details to highlight exactly what you need. As it's currently written, it’s hard to tell exactly what you're asking. See the How to Ask page for help clarifying this question. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.
1
I'm afraid I don't understand your question. Can you explain what Now I have a historical data of numbers tossed 4096 times and try to see what happen to the next if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method. means.
– Blackwood
Nov 16 at 4:24
=randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)will generate a 6 digit string of numbers. If you want it as a number put it through a math operation like*1. problem is, it will recalculate every time something on your spreadsheet changes. It wont be permanent unless you copy and paste its value.
– Forward Ed
Nov 16 at 8:11
3
if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method.Considering gambler's fallacy, what's the point?
– Kamil Maciorowski
Nov 16 at 9:26
Can I use the excel trend or forecast function to estimate the next row of 4097th?
– Chocho Lee
Nov 16 at 13:55
4
Coin tosses are independant events, you cannot predict what they will be based on past tosses. Only predict the probability of any given toss: 0.5 for heads and 0.5 for tails -- from which you can derive the probability of any one combination for any number of tosses -- and that probability does not change whether this is your first toss or your 4097th.
– cybernetic.nomad
Nov 16 at 15:26
|
show 7 more comments
1
I'm afraid I don't understand your question. Can you explain what Now I have a historical data of numbers tossed 4096 times and try to see what happen to the next if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method. means.
– Blackwood
Nov 16 at 4:24
=randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)will generate a 6 digit string of numbers. If you want it as a number put it through a math operation like*1. problem is, it will recalculate every time something on your spreadsheet changes. It wont be permanent unless you copy and paste its value.
– Forward Ed
Nov 16 at 8:11
3
if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method.Considering gambler's fallacy, what's the point?
– Kamil Maciorowski
Nov 16 at 9:26
Can I use the excel trend or forecast function to estimate the next row of 4097th?
– Chocho Lee
Nov 16 at 13:55
4
Coin tosses are independant events, you cannot predict what they will be based on past tosses. Only predict the probability of any given toss: 0.5 for heads and 0.5 for tails -- from which you can derive the probability of any one combination for any number of tosses -- and that probability does not change whether this is your first toss or your 4097th.
– cybernetic.nomad
Nov 16 at 15:26
1
1
I'm afraid I don't understand your question. Can you explain what Now I have a historical data of numbers tossed 4096 times and try to see what happen to the next if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method. means.
– Blackwood
Nov 16 at 4:24
I'm afraid I don't understand your question. Can you explain what Now I have a historical data of numbers tossed 4096 times and try to see what happen to the next if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method. means.
– Blackwood
Nov 16 at 4:24
=randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3) will generate a 6 digit string of numbers. If you want it as a number put it through a math operation like *1. problem is, it will recalculate every time something on your spreadsheet changes. It wont be permanent unless you copy and paste its value.– Forward Ed
Nov 16 at 8:11
=randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3) will generate a 6 digit string of numbers. If you want it as a number put it through a math operation like *1. problem is, it will recalculate every time something on your spreadsheet changes. It wont be permanent unless you copy and paste its value.– Forward Ed
Nov 16 at 8:11
3
3
if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method. Considering gambler's fallacy, what's the point?– Kamil Maciorowski
Nov 16 at 9:26
if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method. Considering gambler's fallacy, what's the point?– Kamil Maciorowski
Nov 16 at 9:26
Can I use the excel trend or forecast function to estimate the next row of 4097th?
– Chocho Lee
Nov 16 at 13:55
Can I use the excel trend or forecast function to estimate the next row of 4097th?
– Chocho Lee
Nov 16 at 13:55
4
4
Coin tosses are independant events, you cannot predict what they will be based on past tosses. Only predict the probability of any given toss: 0.5 for heads and 0.5 for tails -- from which you can derive the probability of any one combination for any number of tosses -- and that probability does not change whether this is your first toss or your 4097th.
– cybernetic.nomad
Nov 16 at 15:26
Coin tosses are independant events, you cannot predict what they will be based on past tosses. Only predict the probability of any given toss: 0.5 for heads and 0.5 for tails -- from which you can derive the probability of any one combination for any number of tosses -- and that probability does not change whether this is your first toss or your 4097th.
– cybernetic.nomad
Nov 16 at 15:26
|
show 7 more comments
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I'm afraid I don't understand your question. Can you explain what Now I have a historical data of numbers tossed 4096 times and try to see what happen to the next if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method. means.
– Blackwood
Nov 16 at 4:24
=randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)&randbetween(0,3)will generate a 6 digit string of numbers. If you want it as a number put it through a math operation like*1. problem is, it will recalculate every time something on your spreadsheet changes. It wont be permanent unless you copy and paste its value.– Forward Ed
Nov 16 at 8:11
3
if the nature and random evolution based on excel analysis not coin toss method.Considering gambler's fallacy, what's the point?– Kamil Maciorowski
Nov 16 at 9:26
Can I use the excel trend or forecast function to estimate the next row of 4097th?
– Chocho Lee
Nov 16 at 13:55
4
Coin tosses are independant events, you cannot predict what they will be based on past tosses. Only predict the probability of any given toss: 0.5 for heads and 0.5 for tails -- from which you can derive the probability of any one combination for any number of tosses -- and that probability does not change whether this is your first toss or your 4097th.
– cybernetic.nomad
Nov 16 at 15:26