Compute $P(X+Y>Z)$ where $X, Y$ and $Z$ are independent, uniform random variables in the interval $[0,1]$.
$begingroup$
I know that if $W=X+Y$ then
$$f_{W}(t) = tmathbf{1}_{[0,1]}(t)+(2-t)mathbf{1}_{(1,2]}(t).$$
Thus, we want to find $P(W>Z)=P(W-Z>0).$ Using Bayes Theorem we get that
$$P(W-Z>0) = P(W-Z>0|Wleq 1)P(Wleq 1)+P(W-Z>0|W> 1)P(W> 1)$$
$$=int_{0}^{1} int_{0}^{w} dz cdot P(Wleq 1)+P(Zleq 1)P(W>1)$$
$$=frac{1}{2}cdot frac{1}{2}+1cdot frac{1}{2}=frac{3}{4}.$$
Is this calculation correct?
Edit
Based on the suggestion made in the comment we consider the following:
$$P(W>Z)=int_{0}^{2}P(Z<w)f_{W}(w)dw$$
$$=int_{0}^{1}w^2cdot dw+int_{1}^{2}(2-w)cdot dw=frac{1}{3}+2-frac{3}{2}=5/6.$$
Does this make sense?
probability-theory
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I know that if $W=X+Y$ then
$$f_{W}(t) = tmathbf{1}_{[0,1]}(t)+(2-t)mathbf{1}_{(1,2]}(t).$$
Thus, we want to find $P(W>Z)=P(W-Z>0).$ Using Bayes Theorem we get that
$$P(W-Z>0) = P(W-Z>0|Wleq 1)P(Wleq 1)+P(W-Z>0|W> 1)P(W> 1)$$
$$=int_{0}^{1} int_{0}^{w} dz cdot P(Wleq 1)+P(Zleq 1)P(W>1)$$
$$=frac{1}{2}cdot frac{1}{2}+1cdot frac{1}{2}=frac{3}{4}.$$
Is this calculation correct?
Edit
Based on the suggestion made in the comment we consider the following:
$$P(W>Z)=int_{0}^{2}P(Z<w)f_{W}(w)dw$$
$$=int_{0}^{1}w^2cdot dw+int_{1}^{2}(2-w)cdot dw=frac{1}{3}+2-frac{3}{2}=5/6.$$
Does this make sense?
probability-theory
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
No this is not correct. To compute probabilities, you need to condition on convenient things. It is not convenient to condition on the event ${Wleq 1}$ because it is not precise enough (there are too many scenarios to consider, each depending on the specific value of $W$ given that $Wleq 1$). So, why not make life easy and condition on all possible values of $W$? $$P[Z<W] = int_{-infty}^{infty} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw=int_{0}^{2} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw$$
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:43
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@Michael I made an edit. Is this correct now?
$endgroup$
– Hello_World
Dec 3 '18 at 16:50
$begingroup$
Yes that looks good now. If you want, you can write that answer yourself in the answer field below and give it "best answer" (which is good practice when solving a problem based on hints).
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:51
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I know that if $W=X+Y$ then
$$f_{W}(t) = tmathbf{1}_{[0,1]}(t)+(2-t)mathbf{1}_{(1,2]}(t).$$
Thus, we want to find $P(W>Z)=P(W-Z>0).$ Using Bayes Theorem we get that
$$P(W-Z>0) = P(W-Z>0|Wleq 1)P(Wleq 1)+P(W-Z>0|W> 1)P(W> 1)$$
$$=int_{0}^{1} int_{0}^{w} dz cdot P(Wleq 1)+P(Zleq 1)P(W>1)$$
$$=frac{1}{2}cdot frac{1}{2}+1cdot frac{1}{2}=frac{3}{4}.$$
Is this calculation correct?
Edit
Based on the suggestion made in the comment we consider the following:
$$P(W>Z)=int_{0}^{2}P(Z<w)f_{W}(w)dw$$
$$=int_{0}^{1}w^2cdot dw+int_{1}^{2}(2-w)cdot dw=frac{1}{3}+2-frac{3}{2}=5/6.$$
Does this make sense?
probability-theory
$endgroup$
I know that if $W=X+Y$ then
$$f_{W}(t) = tmathbf{1}_{[0,1]}(t)+(2-t)mathbf{1}_{(1,2]}(t).$$
Thus, we want to find $P(W>Z)=P(W-Z>0).$ Using Bayes Theorem we get that
$$P(W-Z>0) = P(W-Z>0|Wleq 1)P(Wleq 1)+P(W-Z>0|W> 1)P(W> 1)$$
$$=int_{0}^{1} int_{0}^{w} dz cdot P(Wleq 1)+P(Zleq 1)P(W>1)$$
$$=frac{1}{2}cdot frac{1}{2}+1cdot frac{1}{2}=frac{3}{4}.$$
Is this calculation correct?
Edit
Based on the suggestion made in the comment we consider the following:
$$P(W>Z)=int_{0}^{2}P(Z<w)f_{W}(w)dw$$
$$=int_{0}^{1}w^2cdot dw+int_{1}^{2}(2-w)cdot dw=frac{1}{3}+2-frac{3}{2}=5/6.$$
Does this make sense?
probability-theory
probability-theory
edited Dec 3 '18 at 16:49
Hello_World
asked Dec 3 '18 at 16:36
Hello_WorldHello_World
4,11621731
4,11621731
$begingroup$
No this is not correct. To compute probabilities, you need to condition on convenient things. It is not convenient to condition on the event ${Wleq 1}$ because it is not precise enough (there are too many scenarios to consider, each depending on the specific value of $W$ given that $Wleq 1$). So, why not make life easy and condition on all possible values of $W$? $$P[Z<W] = int_{-infty}^{infty} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw=int_{0}^{2} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw$$
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:43
$begingroup$
@Michael I made an edit. Is this correct now?
$endgroup$
– Hello_World
Dec 3 '18 at 16:50
$begingroup$
Yes that looks good now. If you want, you can write that answer yourself in the answer field below and give it "best answer" (which is good practice when solving a problem based on hints).
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:51
add a comment |
$begingroup$
No this is not correct. To compute probabilities, you need to condition on convenient things. It is not convenient to condition on the event ${Wleq 1}$ because it is not precise enough (there are too many scenarios to consider, each depending on the specific value of $W$ given that $Wleq 1$). So, why not make life easy and condition on all possible values of $W$? $$P[Z<W] = int_{-infty}^{infty} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw=int_{0}^{2} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw$$
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:43
$begingroup$
@Michael I made an edit. Is this correct now?
$endgroup$
– Hello_World
Dec 3 '18 at 16:50
$begingroup$
Yes that looks good now. If you want, you can write that answer yourself in the answer field below and give it "best answer" (which is good practice when solving a problem based on hints).
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:51
$begingroup$
No this is not correct. To compute probabilities, you need to condition on convenient things. It is not convenient to condition on the event ${Wleq 1}$ because it is not precise enough (there are too many scenarios to consider, each depending on the specific value of $W$ given that $Wleq 1$). So, why not make life easy and condition on all possible values of $W$? $$P[Z<W] = int_{-infty}^{infty} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw=int_{0}^{2} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw$$
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:43
$begingroup$
No this is not correct. To compute probabilities, you need to condition on convenient things. It is not convenient to condition on the event ${Wleq 1}$ because it is not precise enough (there are too many scenarios to consider, each depending on the specific value of $W$ given that $Wleq 1$). So, why not make life easy and condition on all possible values of $W$? $$P[Z<W] = int_{-infty}^{infty} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw=int_{0}^{2} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw$$
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:43
$begingroup$
@Michael I made an edit. Is this correct now?
$endgroup$
– Hello_World
Dec 3 '18 at 16:50
$begingroup$
@Michael I made an edit. Is this correct now?
$endgroup$
– Hello_World
Dec 3 '18 at 16:50
$begingroup$
Yes that looks good now. If you want, you can write that answer yourself in the answer field below and give it "best answer" (which is good practice when solving a problem based on hints).
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:51
$begingroup$
Yes that looks good now. If you want, you can write that answer yourself in the answer field below and give it "best answer" (which is good practice when solving a problem based on hints).
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:51
add a comment |
2 Answers
2
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$begingroup$
$x+y > z\
0le z le 1$
Either $x +y > 1$ and we can ignore $z$ or $x+yle 1$ and $z < x+y$
$int_0^1int_0^{1-x}int_0^{x+y} dz dy dx + int_0^1int_{1-x}^{1} dy dx\
frac 13 + frac 12$
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Using the Irwin–Hall distribution
$$W = X + Y,qquad f_W(w)= w 1_{(0,1]}(w) + (2 - w)1_{(1,2)}(w)$$
then you get
$$
begin{align}
P(W > Z)
&= P(W > Zmid W > 1)P(W > 1)+ P(W > Z, W leq 1) \
&= 1 cdot int_1^2(2-w)dw +
int_0^1int_0^wwdzdw \
&= frac{1}{2} + frac{1}{3}
end{align}$$
as Doug M points out. You forgot a $w$ and $dw$ in $int_{0}^{1} int_{0}^{w} dz$.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
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2 Answers
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2 Answers
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$begingroup$
$x+y > z\
0le z le 1$
Either $x +y > 1$ and we can ignore $z$ or $x+yle 1$ and $z < x+y$
$int_0^1int_0^{1-x}int_0^{x+y} dz dy dx + int_0^1int_{1-x}^{1} dy dx\
frac 13 + frac 12$
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
$x+y > z\
0le z le 1$
Either $x +y > 1$ and we can ignore $z$ or $x+yle 1$ and $z < x+y$
$int_0^1int_0^{1-x}int_0^{x+y} dz dy dx + int_0^1int_{1-x}^{1} dy dx\
frac 13 + frac 12$
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
$x+y > z\
0le z le 1$
Either $x +y > 1$ and we can ignore $z$ or $x+yle 1$ and $z < x+y$
$int_0^1int_0^{1-x}int_0^{x+y} dz dy dx + int_0^1int_{1-x}^{1} dy dx\
frac 13 + frac 12$
$endgroup$
$x+y > z\
0le z le 1$
Either $x +y > 1$ and we can ignore $z$ or $x+yle 1$ and $z < x+y$
$int_0^1int_0^{1-x}int_0^{x+y} dz dy dx + int_0^1int_{1-x}^{1} dy dx\
frac 13 + frac 12$
answered Dec 3 '18 at 17:00
Doug MDoug M
44.4k31854
44.4k31854
add a comment |
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Using the Irwin–Hall distribution
$$W = X + Y,qquad f_W(w)= w 1_{(0,1]}(w) + (2 - w)1_{(1,2)}(w)$$
then you get
$$
begin{align}
P(W > Z)
&= P(W > Zmid W > 1)P(W > 1)+ P(W > Z, W leq 1) \
&= 1 cdot int_1^2(2-w)dw +
int_0^1int_0^wwdzdw \
&= frac{1}{2} + frac{1}{3}
end{align}$$
as Doug M points out. You forgot a $w$ and $dw$ in $int_{0}^{1} int_{0}^{w} dz$.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Using the Irwin–Hall distribution
$$W = X + Y,qquad f_W(w)= w 1_{(0,1]}(w) + (2 - w)1_{(1,2)}(w)$$
then you get
$$
begin{align}
P(W > Z)
&= P(W > Zmid W > 1)P(W > 1)+ P(W > Z, W leq 1) \
&= 1 cdot int_1^2(2-w)dw +
int_0^1int_0^wwdzdw \
&= frac{1}{2} + frac{1}{3}
end{align}$$
as Doug M points out. You forgot a $w$ and $dw$ in $int_{0}^{1} int_{0}^{w} dz$.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Using the Irwin–Hall distribution
$$W = X + Y,qquad f_W(w)= w 1_{(0,1]}(w) + (2 - w)1_{(1,2)}(w)$$
then you get
$$
begin{align}
P(W > Z)
&= P(W > Zmid W > 1)P(W > 1)+ P(W > Z, W leq 1) \
&= 1 cdot int_1^2(2-w)dw +
int_0^1int_0^wwdzdw \
&= frac{1}{2} + frac{1}{3}
end{align}$$
as Doug M points out. You forgot a $w$ and $dw$ in $int_{0}^{1} int_{0}^{w} dz$.
$endgroup$
Using the Irwin–Hall distribution
$$W = X + Y,qquad f_W(w)= w 1_{(0,1]}(w) + (2 - w)1_{(1,2)}(w)$$
then you get
$$
begin{align}
P(W > Z)
&= P(W > Zmid W > 1)P(W > 1)+ P(W > Z, W leq 1) \
&= 1 cdot int_1^2(2-w)dw +
int_0^1int_0^wwdzdw \
&= frac{1}{2} + frac{1}{3}
end{align}$$
as Doug M points out. You forgot a $w$ and $dw$ in $int_{0}^{1} int_{0}^{w} dz$.
answered Dec 3 '18 at 22:31
Benjamin ChristoffersenBenjamin Christoffersen
2009
2009
add a comment |
add a comment |
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$begingroup$
No this is not correct. To compute probabilities, you need to condition on convenient things. It is not convenient to condition on the event ${Wleq 1}$ because it is not precise enough (there are too many scenarios to consider, each depending on the specific value of $W$ given that $Wleq 1$). So, why not make life easy and condition on all possible values of $W$? $$P[Z<W] = int_{-infty}^{infty} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw=int_{0}^{2} P[Z<W|W=w]f_W(w)dw$$
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:43
$begingroup$
@Michael I made an edit. Is this correct now?
$endgroup$
– Hello_World
Dec 3 '18 at 16:50
$begingroup$
Yes that looks good now. If you want, you can write that answer yourself in the answer field below and give it "best answer" (which is good practice when solving a problem based on hints).
$endgroup$
– Michael
Dec 3 '18 at 16:51